Fantasy hockey forecaster

This week Matt and Ryan preview the upcoming NHL season. They discuss who will be a surprise team, which players are being overvalued/undervalued going into drafts, and some of their favorite sleeper picks for 2018-2019.

The “yahoo fantasy hockey” is a website that allows users to create their own customized fantasy hockey team. The site also provides projections for the upcoming season and player rankings.

It’s not every day that we watch a highlight reel full of blocked shots and routine body checks. A player who scores a dozen or so points will not be in the scoring leaderboards. When you put all of those characteristics together in a guy that skates as much as or more than most forwards, you have a blend of defenses that the fantasy world isn’t taking advantage of as much as it should be.

This is about low rostership and relative output by blueliners, who aren’t often in the spotlight in the NHL. However, the numbers indicate that they are putting in the effort and are worthy of a spot on your fantasy squad.

Zach Whitecloud of the Vegas Golden Knights is a defenseman. It’s just 10 games, which is the very bare minimum I consider when looking at fantasy production rates at this point, but dammit, it’s a solid ten games. Whitecloud has the most fantasy points per 60 minutes of any defenseman with at least 10 games played (FPP60). Given his tiny sample size, his counting metrics in the areas of shots, hits, and blocked shots are fantastic, and he’s racked up just enough offense to boost his fantasy effect. The offense will never be prolific, and he may not be able to maintain his stellar performance over a longer period of time, but he’s averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game while playing around 17 minutes each night, so he’s worth rostering.

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Edmonton Oilers’ Kris Russell, D: Russell has stepped into the Oilers lineup and thrown his body in front of all the pucks thanks to a spate of injuries. Like… every single one of them. Russell has just a 10-game sample size, but he’s blocked 31 shots in that time, which is good for 1.9 fantasy points per game (FPPG). That’s better than Shea Theodore, Neal Pionk, Quinn Hughes, and, yes, teammate Tyson Barrie, who are all often utilized defenseman. Russell may need some of his teammates to remain on injured reserve in order for him to continue to play a significant role, but with Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, and Cody Ceci all out, the short-term outlook is bright.

Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Bowe Byram, Samuel Girard… it’s hard to believe there’s still opportunity for fantasy performance on this Avalanche blue line outside of those names. Erik Johnson, D, Colorado Avalanche: However, here we are. Johnson isn’t only doing it by blocking shots and delivering hits on defense; he’s second on the blue line with 40 shots on goal, which is also in the top 50 in the league for defenseman. And the fact that he ranks 123rd in the league in overall ice time for blueliners just adds to his brilliance.

Vladislav Gavrikov, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: Gavrikov has increased his overall output to 1.9 FPPG (tied for 27th among defenseman with at least 10 games) and 5.47 FPP60, leading all Blue Jackets defensemen in both assists and blocked shots (28th among defensemen with minimum 10 games). While Jake Bean and Adam Boqvist have more offensive potential in the future, Gavrikov is doing it now and at a rate worthy of a fantasy roster spot.

Fantasy Forecaster for the Week of December 6–12

A jam-packed NHL schedule includes a club’s first five-game week of the season, as well as just one team with a lighter two-game schedule.

Several four-game teams are spending the most of their time on the road, while the St. Louis Blues and Vancouver Canucks are playing all four games at home.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars, who are currently on a tear, had the greatest forecaster rating of the week.

Team	Gms	Ratings	Mon 12/6	Tue 12/7	Wed 12/8	Thu 12/9	Fri 12/10	Sat 12/11	Sun 12/12
	5	9 8	@WSH 5 3	@BUF 10 7	OFF	@CLS 6 6	OFF	@PIT 5 7	@STL 8 4
	3	2 1	@DAL 1 1	OFF	OFF	OFF	FLA 1 1	PHI 2 1	OFF
	3	6 6	OFF	OFF	@VAN 9 10	@EDM 3 6	OFF	@CGY 4 7	OFF
	3	5 2	OFF	ANA 4 1	OFF	OFF	NYR 6 1	WSH 3 1	OFF
	3	5 7	OFF	@SJ 5 10	OFF	CAR 3 8	OFF	BOS 4 7	OFF
	4	6 9	OFF	@WPG 5 9	OFF	@CGY 3 7	OFF	@EDM 2 6	@VAN 8 10
	3	4 5	OFF	NYR 2 4	OFF	@MTL 7 7	OFF	@TOR 1 5	OFF
	4	10 3	@PHI 10 4	OFF	@NYR 10 1	OFF	DET 10 3	OFF	FLA 9 1
	3	5 5	OFF	@TOR 3 6	OFF	ANA 5 5	OFF	@SEA 7 5	OFF
	4	10 10	ARI 10 10	OFF	@VGS 7 8	@LA 9 7	OFF	@SJ 8 10	OFF
	3	6 5	OFF	NSH 2 7	OFF	@STL 6 4	@COL 8 3	OFF	OFF
	3	6 7	OFF	MIN 8 8	OFF	BOS 7 7	OFF	CAR 6 8	OFF
	3	10 5	OFF	@STL 10 4	OFF	OFF	@ARI 10 10	OFF	@COL 10 3
	3	5 5	@VAN 8 6	OFF	OFF	DAL 2 2	OFF	MIN 4 5	OFF
	4	7 7	OFF	@EDM 4 4	OFF	@SJ 6 9	OFF	@LA 8 6	@VGS 5 7
	3	4 3	OFF	TB 2 1	OFF	CHI 3 4	OFF	@STL 5 1	OFF
	4	6 10	OFF	@DET 4 9	OFF	@NYI 5 10	@NJ 6 8	OFF	@NYR 5 6
	3	4 6	OFF	OFF	PHI 5 6	OFF	NSH 2 5	@NYI 5 10	OFF
	3	1 5	OFF	@OTT 2 6	OFF	NSH 1 6	OFF	NJ 1 6	OFF
	4	9 6	OFF	@CHI 7 8	COL 10 1	OFF	@BUF 10 5	OFF	NSH 5 5
	2	4 4	OFF	NYI 5 8	OFF	OFF	OFF	TB 3 2	OFF
	4	7 7	COL 7 2	OFF	@NJ 5 6	OFF	@VGS 3 6	@ARI 10 9	OFF
	3	4 6	@SEA 6 7	OFF	OFF	OFF	@WSH 2 5	ANA 3 7	OFF
	4	9 5	OFF	FLA 7 1	OFF	DET 7 5	OFF	MTL 10 5	ANA 7 3
	3	3 5	OFF	CGY 1 5	OFF	MIN 2 6	OFF	DAL 1 4	OFF
	3	6 5	PIT 4 6	OFF	OFF	WPG 7 6	OFF	CLS 6 5	OFF
	3	7 7	OFF	@MTL 10 8	OFF	@TOR 2 6	OFF	@OTT 10 8	OFF
	3	5 8	OFF	CLS 4 8	OFF	TB 4 8	OFF	CHI 5 10	OFF
	4	4 4	LA 4 2	OFF	BOS 1 2	OFF	WPG 3 3	OFF	CAR 1 3
	3	5 6	OFF	OFF	DAL 2 5	OFF	PHI 5 9	OFF	MIN 4 7
	3	8 6	ANA 8 6	OFF	OFF	OFF	PIT 7 8	@BUF 10 7	OFF
	3	5 5	OFF	CAR 2 6	OFF	@SEA 5 4	@VAN 7 7	OFF	OFF

Notes from the group

Anaheim Ducks: With a five-game week, the Ducks are a great way to increase your weekly production in head-to-head leagues. From the free-agent pool, there are various ways to get a spot in the lineup. With Ryan Getzlaf’s condition uncertain, it could be worth fading the Getzlaf-Troy Terry pairing for the next week and focusing on the second line’s rising performance. Trevor Zegras, Sonny Milano, and Rickard Rakell are all in high demand these days. Zegras has 12 points in his last nine games after a sluggish start and should be picked up anywhere he’s available. The five road games provide some challenging opponents, but quantity will win out over quality.

Dallas Stars: Your chance to snag a free piece of the explosive Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Jason Robertson line has certainly passed you by. The trio had a hand in 15 of the club’s 21 goals scored during its current six-game winning run, just as they did last spring/summer. In ESPN leagues, Robertson’s rostership has increased by more than 10%, reaching an all-time high of 80%; he’s the one you could have a chance at in shallower leagues, since Pavelski and Hintz will be taken. The Stars had a perfect 10 rating for their four-game week, which is highlighted by a game against the Coyotes. Both Bradtby and Jake Oettinger have been rock solid in the crease this season, and either is a good pick for the week in their current timeshare, but if you have to choose one, try to confirm Monday’s starter and utilize them.

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St. Louis Blues: Scott Perunovich eventually defeated Torey Krug in power-play ice time on Thursday after a couple of weeks of building up. This doesn’t mean the rookie’s fortunes have changed, but he continues to show indications of being the team’s greatest advantage option. Krug has two power-play assists in 23:14 total ice time on Thursday, bringing his season total to five power-play assists in 50:58 total ice time. The Blues will play all four of their games at home next week, and they now rank seventh in the league in terms of goals per game at home.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils’ schedule isn’t very appealing, but now that Jack Hughes is back, it’s worth taking a look at the lineup. He’s been quiet in his last two games, and the Devils are clearly seeking for the proper combination for him. Hughes spent much of his first game back alongside Nico Hischier and Yegor Sharangovich. Hughes skated alongside Hischier and Pavel Zacha in the following game on Thursday, but the trio was overpowered, with just one shot for and eight against. The Devils didn’t break up the line of Dawson Mercer, Andreas Johnsson, and Jesper Bratt, but that may be the next step in Hughes’ development. At the moment, the bottom line is that Hughes is a wonderful speculative addition anywhere he is available in fantasy, but it’s too early to pursue any of his colleagues.

Every night throughout the season, Barry Melrose and Linda Cohn will provide a postgame analysis and highlight program. ESPN+ is the place to be.

Notes from the players

Colorado Avalanche’s Nazem Kadri, C: With two of the Avs’ top three centers out with injury, Kadri has stepped up big time in recent weeks. Only Leon Draisaitl has accumulated more points since November 1. The concern now is what the Avs will do once J.T. Compher returns in about a week. Kadri’s value at even strength remains high, given his line was never ripped apart by injuries, but there’s no disputing his power play bonus role laid the groundwork for his success (13 of 24 points since Nov. 1). Prior to Nathan MacKinnon and Compher losing time, he didn’t have that responsibility. However, his degree of achievement implies he will maintain it. This doesn’t seem to be a case where you should sell high, thus retaining Kadri on your roster is perhaps the best option. At least until we see what occurs after Compher is reintroduced into the fold.

Columbus Blue Jackets’ Patrik Laine (W): We’ve been on the four-to-six-week recuperation schedule for Laine for four weeks. He’s skated on his own and seems to be on schedule for the forecast’s second half. This, on the other hand, is when the iron is hot, and it’s time to make a deal. Without Laine, the Blue Jackets attack has held its own, but is plainly superior with him. In his absence, the power play has converted at a rate of 17%, while with him in the lineup, it has converted at a rate of 25%. First and foremost, in shallow leagues, examine your free-agent pool, since he has been reduced to 83 percent rostership. Otherwise, go ahead and put a trade offer out there.

Edmonton Oilers’ Zack Kassian (W): It seems like the Oilers’ top six has expanded, and he’s worth a speculative addition, as is the case anytime this occurs. Kassian formed a line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl against the Coyotes on Nov. 24, and has spent the two games since then with McDavid and Zach Hyman. Kassian also has a habit of piling up fantasy-worthy hits when he gets enough ice time, so when you combine that with access to McDavid, he becomes quite tempting. This happened at the cost of Jesse Puljujarvi, who is now back in the bottom six.

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The “nhl forecaster 2021” is a fantasy hockey forecaster that predicts the outcomes of NHL games. It uses a proprietary algorithm to predict how many goals will be scored and which players will score them.

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